Wild 13 14 usage chart

Beginner’s guide to #MNWild analytics pt. 2 – Who Charted!?

“Seeing is believing.” Humans are incredibly visual, we rely on our eyesight more than any other sense, and we tend to understand information a lot more easily if we see it presented visually as opposed to text or numbers. Plus, a lot more information can be packed into charts, making them very efficient when we want to look at a lot of different variables at the same time. Today I am continuing my “analytics for beginners” series by talking about two different charts–one that has been around seemingly forever, and one that has just recently been developed. Continue reading

Hashtag Hockey Podcast ep. 29 with Dan Ginter 9/11/14

 

The Hashtag Hockey Podcast kicks off season 3! Dan and I discuss a variety of topics, including:

  • A remembrance of September 11th
  • Nino Niederreiter’s contact extension
  • Which craft beers we are enjoying
  • NHL 15, is it worth it?
  • Must-watch TV shows to Netflix binge, including Bojack Horseman and Married at First Sight
  • Hockey Hats

Damned Lies and Statistics: Erik Haula vs Boba Fenwick

For longer than any Minnesota Wild fan cares to remember, the team has had a real problem assembling a capable second line to provide depth and secondary scoring. The second line has recently been occupied by players like Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Guillaume Latendresse, Martin Havlat, Devin Setoguchi, Matt Cullen, and Cal Clutterbuck–a group of solid players who played fairly consistently and maybe individually heated up for a couple weeks, but nothing resembling a high level NHL second unit.

With Vanek joining veterans Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise, and Jason Pominville, the Wild top six suddenly looks very different than just a couple years ago, and in fact, it’s a bit crowded. Add in the young guns who have impressed lately in Charlie Coyle, Nino Niederreider, and Mikael Granlund, and someone is going to be the odd-man-out.

Also, consider that the third and fourth lines have seen the likes of Mike Rupp, Zenon Konopka, Torrey Mitchell, and yeah, Dany Heatley recently. Minnesota could have a completely rebuilt bottom six this year, and whoever misses the top six could end up on a surprisingly productive third line that is very likely to be centered by the tuhlaajapoika, the Adopted Finn Erik Haula.

Continue reading

The beginner’s guide to #MNWild analytics part 1: Christopher Walken presents Corsi and WOWY

The 2014 NHL offseason will go down as the Summer of Analytics after a number of high profile bloggers and stats guys got hired by NHL teams. It’s clear that fancy stats are not going away, and I am seeing a lot more people who are interested in learning about them, so I decided to write up this handy dandy introduction to Fancy Stats for those of you  who may be getting into analytics for the first time, or if you have dabbled and want to beef up your chops. I’m not going to get too deep into the maths here, but if you would like to really dive into the underlying research, I’ll provide some resources at the end of this post. I will start with two stats that have funny names, ones that I think Christopher Walken would enjoy talking about, Corsi and WOWY! Continue reading

Wild Game Notes: 4-8-14 vs Bruins plus individual Corsi and win expectancy

  • A nice come-from-behind victory for the Wild tonight, in the second game of a back to back against the best team in the Eastern Conference.
  • It was the third game in four nights for the Wild, and I thought they looked generally overmatched tonight but they still won the possession game.
  • Koivu and Parise +9 Corsi, Coyle +5. Even or -1 zone starts too. #DoWorkSon
  • Minnesota was down to 5.5% chance to win the game late in the third but they pulled it out. I’d have to do a little bit of checking but they have had a number of games lately where their expected win percent was way down there in the single digits. Not sure if that’s indicative of some team skill or not but it’s hard to argue there isn’t something there, that wasn’t there in previous seasons. And this is coming from a stat guy!

Read on…

Wild Game Notes: 4-5-14 vs Penguins plus individual Corsi and win expectancy

  • Minnesota wins one-nil against Winnipeg, who was motivated to get a win for Hutch (though they still got shut out.)
  • Clearly a defensive gameplan from Mike Yeo tonight, this was a classic Minnesota Wild game. Shades of 2011
  • Case in point, 19 Fenwick events tonight. The Wild were going for controlled entries but not getting a lot of pressure. Lots of one-and-done
  • Read on…

Wild Game Notes: 4-5-14 vs Penguins plus individual Corsi and win expectancy

  • A nice win by the Wild tonight, came out very strong. Good forecheck, kept Pittsburgh bottled in their own zone for long stretches at a time.
  • Need to see them play this style in the playoffs to get deeper into series.
  • Penguins have been pretty much decimated by injuries this year but always nice to beat another playoff team late in the season for a nice confidence boost.
  • Speaking of which, two of the Wild’s remaining four games are against the Eastern Conference-leading Bruins and West Conference-leading Blues. So they’ll have to be on top of their game down the stretch, which I think will be helpful for their first round chances.

Read on…

Wild Game Notes: 4-3-14 at Blackhawks plus individual Corsi and win expectancy

  • Talk about your late game heroics from Erik Haula. Early in the season it was Fontaine with the unexpected scoring, late in the year let’s see if Haula can keep it up with more ice time
  • Haula 15:30 ES TOI, +20/-12 with one more DZ start than OZ (-1). Solid
  • For a spell the Wild looked not to be trying to win, but to not lose. Of course, Haula changed the narrative late in the game, but the Wild were down to <5% to win the game by the ExtraSkater win expectancy formula (which I will admit I don’t know much about other than it seems to be primarily goal and time-based) Read on…