Posts Tagged ‘Detroit Red Wings’

Damned Lies and Statistics: West Conf Round One

Posted: April 25, 2012 in Damned Lies and Statistics
Tags: , , , , , , , , ,
2

Luongo sucked! Mike Smith was great! Canucks choked! Blow up the Sharks! Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s take a look at some numbers from the first round matchups. First, the goalies:

The five tenders that made it out of the first round were remarkable, with Mike Smith’s .945 Ev Sv% and Jaro Halak’s .935 Overall Sv% coming in at the LOW END. If you taped Quick, Smith, Rinne, Halak, and Elliott together to make one supergoalie this round, they collectively would have turned in a .949 Sv% and a 1.57 GAA. That’s prettay…prettay good.

By contrast, the losing goalies showed more variance. Crawford was about who we thought he was (.915 Ev, .903 Ov regular season,) while Jimmy Howard underperformed (or was overwhelmed if you’re a Preds fan,) .929 Ev, .920 Ov regular season.

The narrative for the Canucks this offseason is that Luongo choked…again!…Schneider outplayed him, Schneider is the goalie of the future…et cetera and so on until our collective ears begin to bleed. However, they had the same Ev Sv%, while Schneider’s PP and SH rates were perfect, Luongo let in three power play goals and two shorties (gulp!) Schneider finished with better rate stats, but a couple of bounces here and a couple breaks reversed there and Luongo is 1-2 and Schneider is 0-2. Just saying…

Let’s look at Fenwick rates and total numbers of Sh and Missed Sh for the matchups:

LAK vs VAN

This series saw games where each team dominated in shots fired. The Kings had three games where they pushed the 60/40 mark, but in games 2 and 3, the Nucks blasted almost 60 pucks toward the net and dominated the stat. Also notable is that Game 4 (sans Daniel) and Game 5 (avec Daniel) were very similar in terms of shot output. Each game in the series was close, but the Hockey gods favored the Kings this time. Much has been made of the Kings out-fenwicking their opponents on the regular since the trade deadline, so I will be interested to see if they can continue that trend against a Blues team that is fantastic on defense…

STL vs SJ

Game by game fenwick rates were pretty even throughout the series, but what stands out to me is that after losing game 1 in double-OT despite outshooting the Sharks, the Blues turned around and won the next four despite being outshot by San Jose. LA vs STL could very well turn out to be the Bizarro PIT/PHI series where the losing goalie each night stops 39 of 40 shots and takes the 1-0 loss. It will be interesting to see if the Blues can continue to win games while putting up shots and missed shots totaling in the low-30s, or if the Kings can throw 50+ pucks at the net and find a couple weak spots in the armor of Elliott and Halak.

PHX vs CHI

It’s time for the requisite NHL-owns-the-Coyotes crackpot theory: the League FIXED the series so that the first five games would go into OT so they could sell more beer and make themselves more money! Those pigs. It all makes sense now…

I have written elsewhere on this site that Mike Smith won’t be on any of my fantasy teams next year, but there is no denying how locked in he was during the first round. The Hawks were touching 60 shots and misses in four games, and he still turned in a sub-2 GAA and a .950 Sv%. You have to hand it to the old guy. Maybe he’ll start doing credit card commercials where he’s locked in a taxi with a psychopath, frantically calling a gender-confused customer service agent with passive-aggressive tendencies…

What I said about St Louis needing to continue finding goals on a low number of shots goes double for Phoenix. I was surprised when they were able to run with the Hawks in game 1 and even game 2, but then they dropped off drastically in games 4-6, while Chicago kept increasing their total shot count. If Phoenix thinks they can settle in the low-twenties against Pekka Rinne, they must be feeling really lucky.

NSH vs DET

No team scored more than 3 goals in any game this series, while Pekka Rinne turned in some impressive performances in games 3 and 4, making more than 40 saves in each. I am not a Red Wings homer (they are so proud of their Hockeytown…Minnesota has a whole STATE OF HOCKEY) though I do sort of like their organization. I admit I had them picked to beat the Predators in this series, but that’s why they play the games. Nashville turned in some low total shot games, and if Mike Smith continues to be Voltron, they might be desparate for a goal. Phoenix has shown that even if they are undermatched on paper, they can take a game to overtime where anything can happen.

What do you think? What stats would you want to look at when breaking down a series? Who are your predictions to make it to the Western Conference finals and why? Leave a comment and share your thoughts, and don’t forget to follow me on twitter @Hashtag_Hockey

Western Conference Fenwick thru 4/15/12

Posted: April 17, 2012 in Snap Shots
Tags: , , , , , , , , ,
0

Will update with results of SJ/STL once that game is in the books. Eastern Conference coming tomorrow!

  • You can see that CHI/PHX is the closest series in the West, though Mike Smith’s injury could potentially shift the dynamic, the Hawks fired 59 (shots + missed shots) in each of the firs two games, and I feel pretty comfortable saying Mike Smith >>> Jason LaBarbera…
  • LA was outshot badly in game 2 yet still managed to score 4 goals. Then in game 3, in a scoreless game until late in the third period, they directed much more rubber at the net than did Vancouver. The Canucks need to find some way to make this into a series or they will be making tee times by next week.
  • The Red Wings are leading the Predators in Fenwick, but a Hot Goalie like Pekka Rinne can neutralize those differentials in short order. All three games have ended with a score of 3-2, and in each game the winner was outshot. It will be interesting to see if that pattern holds. A more advanced look at Fenwick would parse out 5v5 shots, but this is just a quick and dirty look at the series.

Inside the Numbers: Jimmy Howard

Posted: April 11, 2012 in Inside the Numbers
Tags: , , , , ,
0

By the Numbers: Jimmy Howard

Position: Goalie
Team: Detroit Red Wings
2011-12 Stats: 57 GS, 35 W, 2.12 GAA, .920 Sv%.
Quality Starts: 37 (64.9% of GS)
Terrible Starts: 5 (8.8% of GS)
Quality Starts Wasted: 7 (18.9% of QS)
Bail-Outs: 5 (14.3% of GS)

Click Here for a glossary of statistical terms used in this article.

Jimmy Howard just finished his third season as the full-time goalie for the Red Wings. He had a great rookie season in 2009-10, and finished as the runner-up for the Calder Trophy. Then, in 2010-11, he went through a sophomore slump, but this year he seems to have returned to form, and actually improved on his rookie numbers in some areas. In fact, a closer look at the statistics reveals some remarkable similarities between his 2009-10 rookie campaign and his recent 2011-12 season. While Howard’s overall Sv% was .920 this year, his Ev Sv% of .929 was the highest in his career, just edging out his .925 from 2009 in very nearly the same amount of starts (he had 61 GS in his rookie campaign compared to 57 this year.)

Howard’s performance when the Wings were shorthanded this year was not so great (27 PPGA on 243 S, or .889,) compared to 2009 when he let in 28 PPGA on 296 S, for .905. This is the reason that although his Ev Sv% was the highest of his career this year, his Ov Sv% was lower than when he was a rookie. However, special teams Sv% is not consistent from year to year, so if Detroit can bolster their PK unit or if Howard essentially has a lucky season on special teams, his full-season Sv% could end up in the upper .920s or even .930.

An examination of Howard’s Quality Starts over the last three years reveals an uncanny similarity between this year and his rookie year. This year, he posted 37 QS out of 57 GS (64.9%), with 5 Terrible Starts (8.8%).

In 2009-10, he had exactly the same number of QS, but started a handful more games that year. His terrible starts over the past three years have been nearly identical, and during his sophomore year, he had more “mediocre games” (neither QS nor TS) while only having 7 blow-up games.

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
QS

37

29

37
QSW

9

5

7
TS

6

7

5
BO

8

14

5
TSBO

0

1

0

A look at Quality Starts Wasted and Bail-outs by the Wings shows some interesting findings. The Winged Wheels actually wasted less of Howard’s QS in his “down year,” and wasted less this year than his rookie year, but they bailed him out less this year, and posted a very high number of bailouts last year when Howard was slumping…lesson being, I guess, that it’s good to play on one of the league’s perennial powerhouses. Who knew?

So what can we glean from looking at all this data? Well, with a great year followed by a down year followed by another good year, it is a little difficult to confidently predict which Howard will show up next year? I would tend to think he is closer to what he showed us this year, because his great Ev Sv% gives me reason to be optimistic. That number may come down slightly next year, but even so, that would still point to a reliable netminder. Howard played his age 27 season this year, so while he is no spring chicken, athletes tend to find that sweet spot between athleticism and experience in their late-twenties. I would guess that what we’ve seen from Howard this year is basically who he is, and I would feel confident projecting a similar season next year, though if he doesn’t break any of his digits or limbs, he will certainly be expected to contend for the league lead in Wins. It is also possible that we haven’t seen Howard’s best season, and if he puts everything together and gets a little lucky, he could put up numbers that would rival the very best goalies in the league (obviously this is a best-case scenario, but the reason we love sports is that anything can happen.)

Bottom Line: With two good years and one decent year under his belt, I would not reach for Howard over other, more proven netminders. I would classify him as a middle- or low-end No. 1 option, and certainly as a No. 2 fantasy goalie he would make a great option. To pair Howard’s Win potential with another goalie who can be counted on to put up great ratio stats would certainly make a very formidable fantasy duo. I wouldn’t bank on him repeating his .929 Ev Sv% necessarily, not until we see it again, but for the fantasy owner that likes to gamble, Howard could be drafted as a 6-10 goaltender who could return a great deal of value if he does get that best-case season. We will let the playoffs and offseason dust settle before reassessing Howard’s fantasy value for 2012-13.

NHL Playoff Implications: The Red Wings certainly have the star power to make a good run at Lord Stanley’s Hardware, though many are talking up the “this is their last shot to win a Cup with this group” angle. I really like the Wings’ chances this postseason, and if they do come out of the Western Conference, I wouldn’t be surprised. It helps to have a stellar offense in front of you as a goalie, though that offense will definitely be tested by the Predators’ great defense and some guy named Pekka Rinne. Will Howard be up to the challenge? There’s only one way to find out…

P.S. For what it’s worth, I have the Red Wings beating the Predators in a tough series, and actually coming out of the Western Conference to face Pittsburgh. I know they are old but I put a high value on experience in the playoffs. Plus, it helps to have guys named Datsuyk and Zetterberg on your team. The Wings will need Howard to be on top of his game if they hope to beat Nashville or St. Lous if they can topple San Jose.